The AI-Bubble Scorecard

Signup Write New Story The AI-Bubble Scorecard by TheLLMSeeker by TheLLMSeeker | @ notllmhallucination I explore the new world of possibilities with AI while trying to understand how not to make Claude hallucinate!

I explore the new world of possibilities with AI while trying to understand how not to make Claude hallucinate!

"AI bubble" had one of its loudest weeks of the year. CoreWeave slid to a new 52-week low on financing worries, Nvidia fell 4.4% on October 22, and Ken Griffin told a Citadel conference investors are "almost certainly" in a bubble, which promptly drew pushback from Deutsche Bank's Christian Sewing and BlackRock's Larry Fink. Jensen Huang, meanwhile, said neocloud demand is off the charts, but capital for them is scarce.

I kept a score of all the pieces I saw this week, so 21 articles, reports, and columns from October 16 to 23 that came up in my searches with enough text to judge. Each piece is scored on its overall verdict: Bubble if it says AI is a bubble and/or about to pop; Not a bubble if it rejects the label or says burst fears are premature; Mixed if it presents both sides or says a bubble exists but isn't about to burst.

Result: 8 bubble · 4 not a bubble · 9 mixed (21 pieces)

Oct 16, Open Markets Institute: report on circular financing says the AI bubble is "primed to pop." Bubble

Oct 16, IoT Analytics: analysis concluding there's no widespread AI bubble. Not a bubble

Oct 17, Fortune: Wall Street debates whether the warnings are a head fake. Mixed

Oct 17, The American Bazaar: the bubble "isn't bursting, it's being audited." Mixed

Oct 18, Bloomberg: billionaires warn of a bubble, Howard Marks unconvinced. Mixed

Oct 19, CEPR (Dean Baker): AI Bubble Monitor #19 Bubble

Oct 20, NPR / WBUR: Is the AI boom a bubble waiting to burst? Mixed

Oct 20, Bloomberg: Griffin says AI is "almost certainly" a bubble. Bubble

Oct 21, 24/7 Wall St. (via Yahoo Finance): Griffin's bubble remarks. Bubble

Oct 21, Bloomberg: Federated Hermes CIO says the boom has years to run. Not a bubble

Oct 21, Bloomberg: Sewing and Fink push back on Griffin. Not a bubble

Oct 21, Axios: The AI trade gets a reappraisal. Mixed

Oct 21, Common Dreams: report warns the bubble is "primed to pop." Bubble

Oct 21, The Blaze: Ed Zitron says the bubble is about to pop. Bubble

Oct 21, Investing.com: Yardeni says a bubble exists but isn't about to burst. Mixed

Oct 21, Investing.com: "AI bubble or not," manage the risk. Mixed

Oct 21, Around Prague: a 16% weekly drop is a correction, not a collapse. Not a bubble

Oct 22, CounterPunch: is CoreWeave's bad week the beginning of the end? Bubble

Oct 22, Luminix: the evidence for and against. Mixed

Oct 23, Asia Times: report says the bubble is "primed to pop." Bubble

Oct 23, Tech Diplomacy (Substack): boom-or-bubble roundup. Mixed

Reading the numbers: The bubble narratives are more concentrated than it looks. Three of the eight entries cover the same Open Markets/Americans for Financial Reform report, and two cover the same Griffin remarks, so by distinct underlying argument it's closer to 5 bubble vs 4 not.

The bigger tell is the mixed column: the most common position this week was some version of Yardeni's line, that the conditions for a bubble are there (its new meter reads 83 out of 100) but the triggers that ended past booms are only partly present (34 out of 100). Almost nobody in the sample argued AI itself is overhyped as a technology; the fight is about debt, financing, and whether the spending pays back in time.

Bloomberg (Oct 18, 20, 21), Fortune (Oct 17), Axios (Oct 21), NPR/WBUR (Oct 20), CEPR AI Bubble Monitor (Oct 19), Common Dreams (Oct 21), Asia Times (Oct 23), CounterPunch (Oct 22), The Blaze (Oct 21), 24/7 Wall St. (Oct 21), Investing.com (Yardeni; "AI Bubble or Not"), Around Prague, IoT Analytics, The American Bazaar (Oct 17), Luminix, Tech Diplomacy Substack (Oct 23), CNBC (Oct 22, Huang), The Motley Fool (Oct 22, CoreWeave/Nvidia closes)

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