Was passiert mit KI-Tools, wenn die Blase platzt? Erfahrungen aus zwei Crashs

If the AI bubble pops, what happens to the tools you use every day?

I've run a business through two crashes. Here's what actually happened, and what I'm doing this time.

On Monday, October 26, Anthropic, the company behind Claude, filed to go public. It's going to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.

The filing shows more than $16 billion in revenue in just six months. That's fourteen times the year before.

It also shows an $80 billion loss. Most of that is a one-time accounting charge, about $72 billion. But even without it, this is a company burning money at a scale we've never seen.

The risk section alone runs almost a hundred pages. And reports say it could be valued at $1.5 to $2 trillion.

Then there's CoreWeave. They rent out the chips that run these AI models. On October 14, their stock dropped about 15% in a day, because the interest on their debt climbed to around 15%.

So people are asking: is this the top? Is it about to pop? Some big banks say no, this is a boom, not a bubble. Others are less sure.

I'm not going to predict the stock market. Nobody can. What I can tell you is what happened to people like me the last two times.

In March 2000, the Nasdaq hit about 5,000. Two and a half years later, it was at about 1,100. That's a 78% drop.

Pets.com, which had a Super Bowl ad, shut down that same year. Hundreds of startups just vanished.

Amazon's stock went from about $107 to about $6. More than 90% gone. People called it Amazon.bomb.

And here's what I want you to notice. Google was founded in 1998, and it launched its ad business in 2000, right in the middle of the crash.

The internet didn't die. Email didn't die. Search didn't die. The companies crashed. The tools stayed. And the tools got cheaper.

That's the world I walked into. I started my web business in Tokyo in 2004, right after the crash. Servers were cheap, and the people who were left knew what they were doing.

I didn't have investors. I didn't have a team. I just built small things that people actually paid for.

Then came 2008. On September 15, Lehman Brothers collapsed. It was the biggest bankruptcy in American history.

This crash was different. It wasn't about websites. It was about borrowed money. Overnight, it got hard to borrow anything.

Companies that ran on debt went down first. Companies that ran on real customers paying real money mostly survived. Mine did.

Like 2000, there's a ton of hype, and valuations that assume everything goes perfectly.

Like 2008, a lot of it runs on borrowed money. Data centers, chips, power. When borrowing gets expensive, that part shakes first. That's what CoreWeave is showing us.

But unlike 2000, the revenue is real. Millions of people pay for these tools every month. I'm one of them.

So here's the part that matters for you. If money gets tight, your AI tools won't disappear. But they will change.

Right now, these companies are fighting for you. Cheap plans, generous limits, new features every week. A lot of that is subsidized.

If investors start asking for profit, that's the first thing to go.

・Tighter limits ・Higher prices ・Some features quietly disappear ・Some smaller tools shut down completely

That's exactly what happened in 2001. The free stuff went away first.

So how would you know it's starting? Here are the signals I watch.

None of these are happening in a big way yet. But that's the order I'd expect them in.

I run my whole business on about forty AI sessions a day. So I've had to think about this.

1. My rules and my memory live in plain files on my own Mac. Not inside one app. If a company changes its terms, I don't lose years of setup.

2. Every big decision also goes to three other AIs. Not just Claude. So I already know how the others work. If I have to switch, it's an afternoon, not a month.

3. I already split the work. Cheap, repetitive checks go to the cheapest model that's good enough. The hard thinking stays on the best one.

4. I use this cheap era hard. Right now you can build things for almost nothing. I'm building things that keep working even if the price doubles.

5. The lesson from 2008: make money from real customers. If people pay you because you solve their problem, a crash is weather, not the end.

If you want to start today, here's a simple version. It takes about an hour.

That's it. You're not switching. You're just making sure you can.

I've watched two bubbles pop. Both times, the people who got hurt were the ones who depended on one company, or on borrowed money.

The tools stayed. They'll stay this time too. Bubbles pop on companies. They don't have to pop on you.

Sources: Anthropic's IPO filing as reported by AP (October 26, 2026), CoreWeave market data (October 14, 2026), and historical records for the Nasdaq, Amazon, Pets.com, Google and Lehman Brothers. This is not financial advice.